ResearchMethodologyDataPeopleInstituteSupport
Critical Load / Place assessment

AI capacity is a property of place.

We measure how much compute a place can support, what that compute changes from manufacture to operation, and which conditions should govern development.

240 MWPlanned capacity
176 MWIllustrative threshold
WaterBinding constraint
AI capacity is a property of place. Engineering-style site section showing grid connection, power supply, compute facility, cooling system, water source, land and environmental boundary, with planned capacity 240 MW and an illustrative Critical Load of 176 MW constrained by water. Explore the research
Compute has physical limits. Critical Load measures local capacity, impacts and development conditions.

The research boundary runs from semiconductor manufacturing, hardware and workload energy through electricity, cooling, water, land, infrastructure and community effects.

Research releases

Evidence that already changes how compute is measured.

These publications, datasets and open tools form part of the institute's active research base. Each record keeps its authors, institutional affiliation, method boundary and source link visible so the work can be inspected, cited and extended.

CL-R03 / 2026

Where Do the Joules Go?

Jae-Won Chung, Ruofan Wu, Jeff J. Ma and Mosharaf Chowdhury / ML.ENERGY

Task choice can move inference energy by 25×.

Measurements cover 46 models, seven tasks and 1,858 configurations; video generation can exceed image generation by more than 100×.

CL-R05 / 2025

HGX H100 Product Carbon Footprint

NVIDIA / analysis by WSP

1,312 kgCO₂e cradle-to-gate per HGX H100 baseboard.

Materials and components account for 91% of the reported footprint, creating a concrete downstream anchor for embodied-compute accounting.

CL-R04 / 2023

Aqueduct 4.0

World Resources Institute

Twenty-five countries face extremely high annual water stress.

The basin context turns facility water demand into a place-specific constraint rather than a context-free efficiency ratio.

CL-R06 / 2025

GREEN

Kaiqiang Xu, Decang Sun, Han Tian, Junxue Zhang and Kai Chen / HKUST and USTC

Up to 41.2% lower cluster carbon footprint.

The NSDI evaluation also reports a 12% peak-power reduction, with a 3.6–5.9% job-completion-time trade-off.

CL-R06 / 2024

DC-CFR

Soumyendu Sarkar et al. / Hewlett Packard Enterprise

14.5% carbon, 14.4% energy and 13.7% cost reductions.

The multi-agent control study evaluates carbon-aware workload, cooling and battery decisions across multiple regions for one year.

CL-R06 / OPEN TOOL

DCRL-Green

Soumyendu Sarkar et al. / Hewlett Packard Enterprise

An open environment for joint data-centre control research.

The modular multi-agent environment supports reproducible experiments across workload scheduling, cooling and energy storage.

Research records are presented in one publication system. Authorship, affiliation, method, source and release status remain attached to every record.
01 / Research programme

Six research programmes, one measurement problem.

The programme connects direct telemetry, lifecycle compute carbon, AI inference benchmarks, local water context, semiconductor manufacturing carbon and workload routing into a single place-based model of compute capacity, local impact and decision.

Reference telemetry
Workload energy

409.7 W direct GPU reference signal

Hardware energy counters can anchor workload accounting before allocation.

Working reference recordReference validation shows 34.4–49.5 W MAE for one estimator run; provenance remains part of the release gate.
Open research →
Lifecycle
Compute carbon

Lifecycle carbon does not end at electricity

Semiconductor, hardware, facility, electricity, cooling, network and replacement are allocated to useful compute.

Working model illustration1 MWh IT spans 90–1,080 kgCO₂e across the current reference electricity contexts before the full lifecycle stack is added.
Open research →
Benchmark
AI inference
/1k

25× energy / response

Reasoning averages 4,625 J vs 184 J for conversation in the current B200 benchmark set.

ML.ENERGY / 202646 models · 7 tasks · 1,858 configurations.
Open research →
Context
Water constraint

>80% = extreme stress

A litre only becomes decision-useful when placed inside basin availability and competing demand.

WRI AQUEDUCT 4.0WRI reports 25 countries facing extremely high annual water stress.
Open research →
Industrial method
Semiconductor carbon
FABWAFERDIEPKGSYS

From fab carbon to embodied compute

Process gases, abatement, electricity, yield and advanced packaging are carried through to useful compute.

Working methodSemiconductor method development + public product-carbon benchmark bridge.
Open research →
Decision
Time & region
NOW
SHIFT

Time & region shifting under constraints

Published scheduling research shows that flexible workloads can reduce carbon, but the feasible move depends on service and infrastructure constraints.

Research synthesisCritical Load extends carbon-aware routing to water, grid, reliability and cost.
Open research →
02 / Active research

What we are working on now.

Programmes stay broad; projects make the work concrete. Status labels distinguish active method development, evidence assembly and scoped future work.

ID
Project
Programme / responsibility
Status
Next public output
CL-P01
Compute Energy Measurement ProtocolFrom hardware telemetry to reproducible workload evidence.
R01 / R03 · Yan Zhang
Method development
Technical note + benchmark registry
CL-P02
Carbon of ComputeLifecycle carbon from semiconductor manufacturing to useful delivered compute.
R02 / R05 · Runwen Jin
Working research
Working paper + open schema
CL-P03
Place Water Constraint ModelTranslate facility water demand and basin context into a supportable compute envelope.
R04 · Research Group · hydrology reviewer sought
Method development
Model note; independent hydrology review planned
CL-P04
CL-001 Place AssessmentFirst place-based evidence assembly linking capacity, impact and decision.
Cross-programme · Xuguang Ma / Yan Zhang
Evidence assembly
Baseline assessment; no rating issued yet
CL-P05
Constraint-aware Compute RoutingTime and region shifting after service, grid, water and sovereignty constraints.
R06 · Yan Zhang
Working research
Research note + decision-record format
03 / Capacity → impact → decision

Capacity is the first answer. Impact makes it useful.

Critical Load first identifies how much compute a place can support. It then tests what a proposed project changes locally and turns the result into a planning decision. The working example below keeps the existing V8.5 illustrative 240 MW / 176 MW case — it is not a rating of a real place.

Illustrative assessment / same V8.5 reference case
176MW
Water is the binding constraint.

Proposed load: 240 MW. The first local constraint is reached at 176 MW, leaving the proposal 64 MW outside the illustrated supportable envelope.

Capacity
240 MW proposed → 176 MW supportable
−64 MW margin
Water impact
The local water threshold is crossed before the full project load is reached.
Binding
Grid / power
Still tested independently; not the first binding limit in this reference case.
Constraint record
Carbon / environment
Impact remains visible as a separate result rather than disappearing into one ESG score.
Impact record
Decision outputDo not approve the 240 MW proposal unchanged. Resize to the supportable envelope or change the condition that makes water binding, then reassess.
04 / Scenario comparison

The same place produces a different decision as compute grows.

A Critical Load assessment is not a single score. It compares proposed scales against the same place boundary so the point at which a constraint becomes binding is visible.

Assessment line+100 MW+176 MW+240 MW
Capacity stateInside envelopeBelow the first binding threshold.Critical LoadThe first local constraint reaches its limit.64 MW overProposal exceeds the illustrated supportable capacity.
Binding stateNo binding limit yetContinue monitoring all constraints.Water bindsWater defines the maximum supportable load.Water exceededMitigation or resizing is required.
DecisionFeasible in envelopeSubject to the full evidence record.Threshold conditionDo not treat the boundary as spare capacity.Redesign / mitigateDo not proceed unchanged.

Illustrative decision structure only. A real place assessment replaces these reference states with measured or sourced baseline data, project assumptions, impact deltas, uncertainty and a versioned evidence chain.

05 / Featured research

Reasoning changes the environmental unit of AI.

A response is not a fixed unit of compute. Output length, batching, model behaviour and hardware can change energy by an order of magnitude or more.

25×

Mean energy per response in the reference benchmark.

Reasoning tasks averaged 4,625 J per response versus 184 J for conversation tasks across the benchmark synthesis.

FIGURE 03.1 · CL-E03-B01 · SOURCE / ML.ENERGY · arXiv:2601.22076
184 J
Conversation
mean output 717 tokens
4,625 J
Reasoning
mean output 6,988 tokens
07 / Research agenda

The questions we intend to answer next.

A 2027–2030 research agenda turns the six programmes into a multi-year public research mission rather than a collection of one-off studies.

MISSION 01

Measure compute

Reproducible measurement from chips and hardware to workloads and useful compute.

MISSION 02

Measure the full footprint

Energy, lifecycle carbon, water, land, infrastructure and community exposure.

MISSION 03

Measure places

Build comparable place assessments and a longitudinal evidence base for major compute regions.

MISSION 04

Turn evidence into decisions

Capacity envelopes, scenarios, conditions, alternatives and public decision records.

08 / Institute

Designed to behave like a measurement institution, not a dashboard.

The institute's job is to make compute capacity, lifecycle impact and local consequences legible, comparable and reviewable.

01

Methods before claims

Definitions and boundaries are published before ratings.

02

Evidence classes stay visible

Measured, modelled and derived values are never collapsed into the same label.

03

Place matters

Grid and watershed context are part of the unit of analysis.

04

Research remains challengeable

Versioning, review, limitations and data provenance are part of every publication.

RESEARCH / 2026.09

Research programme

Six long-term programmes connect semiconductor manufacturing, lifecycle carbon, physical telemetry, AI workloads and place constraints into one public measurement architecture.

02 / Programme system

Each programme is a continuing research line, not a single article.

Research questions lead to active projects; projects release methods, datasets, working papers and assessments.

Programme
Research question
Active project
Expected public output
R01How should physical energy be attributed to delivered compute?CL-P01 / Compute Energy Measurement ProtocolProtocol · validation dataset · method note
R02What is the full lifecycle carbon intensity of useful compute?CL-P02 / Carbon of ComputeWorking paper · lifecycle schema · benchmark set
R03How do task, batching, hardware and precision change AI energy?CL-P01 / inference benchmark streamBenchmark registry · reproducible result notes
R04When does local water availability become the binding compute constraint?CL-P03 / Place Water Constraint ModelModel note · place evidence requirements
R05How much carbon exists before an accelerator becomes operational?CL-P02 / semiconductor workstreamCL-SCM method · public benchmark bridge
R06Where and when should flexible compute run after physical constraints?CL-P05 / Constraint-aware RoutingResearch note · decision records
CL-MN-001 / METHOD NOTE / v0.5

Critical Load methodology

A place is constrained by the first physical infrastructure limit or environmental budget that reaches its limit.

Power
221 MW
Grid
203 MW
Water
176 MW
Carbon
184 MW
Cooling
194 MW
Land
240+ MW
Environment
189 MW
CL is a binding-limit model. Each constraint is independently estimated, then the minimum defines the available compute capacity for the stated place and time boundary.

Every value carries an evidence class.

ClassMeaningExample
MeasuredDirect physical observationGPU cumulative energy counter
Observed / reportedOperational or provider recordCloud usage, facility PUE
ModelledEstimated using versioned coefficientsInstance energy, facility embodied allocation
ContextualLocation/time environmental factorGrid factor, basin stress
DerivedCritical Load calculation carrying upstream IDslifecycle gCO₂e / GPU-hour, water-limited MW

Observe → contextualize → allocate → constrain → decide.

01

Observe

Physical telemetry, usage, manufacturing and site records.

02

Contextualize

Grid, watershed, climate, procurement and regulatory boundary.

03

Allocate

Move shared manufacturing and infrastructure impact to workload units.

04

Constrain

Estimate supportable compute under each physical or environmental budget.

05

Impact

Compare the place baseline with the proposed compute scenario and preserve the local deltas.

06

Decide

State the supportable envelope, binding limit, project conditions and alternatives.

Carbon starts before the accelerator exists and continues beyond electricity use.

CL-LC defines a compute lifecycle boundary spanning semiconductor manufacturing, hardware integration, facility construction, electricity, cooling, shared services, replacement and end of life.

LayerIncluded carbon sourcesTypical denominator
SemiconductorFab electricity, process gases, abatement, chemicals, UPW, wafer/die yield, packaginggood die / packaged device
HardwareBoards, servers, racks, memory, storage and supporting electronicslifetime useful compute
FacilityBuilding, steel/concrete, UPS, transformers, switchgear, batteries, cooling plantcapacity × time × utilization share
OperationIT electricity, facility overhead, backup generation and location-specific electricity contextworkload energy / GPU-hour / job
CoolingCooling electricity when measured bottom-up, refrigerants, embodied cooling equipmentfacility or workload allocation
Shared servicesNetwork and storage attributable to the compute serviceGB transfer / GB-hour / service share
Replacement / EOLComponent replacement and end-of-life treatment within the declared boundarylifetime useful compute

“Green electricity” is not automatically zero lifecycle carbon.

Critical Load keeps three electricity statements separate: physical location-based electricity, procurement or market-based claims, and lifecycle emissions of the generation assets themselves.

Physical

Location-based

What the local electricity system supplied in the stated time and place boundary.

Contractual

Procurement-based

PPA, certificates and other contractual attributes remain a distinct claim rather than replacing the physical record.

Lifecycle

Generation assets

Manufacturing, construction, maintenance and end-of-life emissions of electricity infrastructure where the study boundary requires them.

Method principleAs operational electricity gets cleaner, upstream semiconductor, hardware and facility carbon can become a larger share of the compute lifecycle result.

Shared infrastructure must be allocated before it can become compute carbon.

SEMICONDUCTOR + HARDWARE

Useful-compute allocation

Lifetime, utilization, GPU-hours, delivered FLOPs or another declared useful-work denominator.

FACILITY

Capacity-time allocation

Facility embodied carbon is assigned by capacity, service life, IT load share and utilization.

NETWORK + STORAGE

Service allocation

Traffic, storage-hours or a documented service allocation connects shared infrastructure to the workload.

Lifecycle compute carbon intensityILC = Csemiconductor + Chardware + Cfacility + Celectricity + Ccooling + Cnetwork/storage + Creplacement/EOL

Each term is first normalized to the same useful-compute denominator and time boundary.

Boundary rules prevent the same carbon from being counted twice.

×2
PUE and bottom-up cooling cannot both claim the same cooling electricity.

If facility electricity is estimated as IT energy × PUE, cooling electricity is already inside the facility total. A bottom-up cooling-energy record replaces that portion; it does not add to it.

×2
Lifecycle electricity factors and generation-infrastructure carbon must share one boundary.

If a lifecycle electricity factor already includes generation-asset construction, those assets are not added again as a separate term.

×2
Product PCFs must disclose whether packaging and memory are already inside the product boundary.

Semiconductor, package and system records are reconciled before aggregation.

CL-SCM carries fab evidence into the lifecycle model.

Fab process inventory → wafer basis → good-die allocation → advanced packaging → product carbon → lifetime useful compute. CL-SCM is the upstream manufacturing method feeding the broader CL-LC lifecycle carbon model.

Carbon-limited loadLcarbon = stated carbon budget / lifecycle compute carbon intensity

Only after the full lifecycle intensity is normalized to the same time and capacity boundary does carbon enter the Critical Load minimum operator.

CL-DS-001 / DATA SPECIFICATION / v0.4

Evidence & data system

The data model preserves the chain from physical observation and manufacturing evidence to lifecycle compute carbon and Critical Load.

01 / Record types

Three records keep measurement, context and decision separate.

CL-E

Evidence record

Telemetry, manufacturing inventory, reported usage, model coefficient or environmental context with source, time, location and uncertainty.

CL-A

Assessment record

Place baseline, scenario impacts, lifecycle intensity and constraint calculation for a defined site, region and workload boundary.

CL-D

Decision record

Selected optimization option plus rejected alternatives and the constraints that governed the choice.

02 / Core fields

A result is reproducible only when its boundary is explicit.

FieldPurpose
Place boundarySite, grid zone, watershed and administrative region
Time boundaryObservation, manufacturing and validity interval
Compute unitMW, GPU-hour, job, request, token or useful-compute denominator
Lifecycle boundaryIncluded semiconductor, hardware, facility, operation and EOL stages
Evidence classMeasured, reported, modelled, contextual or derived
Method versionCalculation, allocation and coefficient release
UncertaintyConfidence, error and missing-data state
03 / Lifecycle carbon record

One compute-carbon result carries the entire upstream evidence chain.

The lifecycle record does not collapse manufacturing and operation into one unexplained number.

Record groupRepresentative fieldsEvidence rule
SemiconductorFab, node, gases, abatement, wafer, yield, package, HBMCarry CL-SCM method and primary/secondary evidence state
HardwareAccelerator, board, server, rack, lifetime, utilizationDeclare product boundary and useful-compute allocation
Facility embodiedBuilding, UPS, transformer, switchgear, battery, cooling plantDeclare service life, capacity and workload share
ElectricityIT kWh, facility kWh, PUE or bottom-up overhead, grid factorKeep location-based, procurement-based and lifecycle factors distinct
CoolingCooling electricity, refrigerant type/leakage, equipment embodied carbonRecord whether energy is already captured by PUE
Shared servicesNetwork GB, storage GB-hour, service allocationVersion model coefficients and service boundary
Lifecycle resultkgCO₂e/GPU-hour, kgCO₂e/job, gCO₂e/1k tokens or useful computeCarry every upstream evidence ID and allocation rule
04 / Semiconductor record

Manufacturing evidence keeps its own high-resolution schema.

The semiconductor record preserves the variables that determine whether a chip-carbon result can actually be reproduced.

Field groupRepresentative fieldsWhy it matters
Fab identityFab location, reporting period, process node, wafer diameterSets electricity, technology and manufacturing boundary
Process inventoryElectricity, process gases, abatement, chemicals, UPWCaptures direct and energy-related manufacturing impact
Yield allocationWafer starts, die area, gross dies, good-die yieldDetermines embodied impact per usable die
PackagingSubstrate, backend process, HBM / memory, package typeAdds post-fab manufacturing impact
Evidence qualityPrimary / secondary, confidentiality, uncertainty, source datePrevents confidential gaps from disappearing into a single factor
Method recordAllocation rule, method version, evidence IDsAllows the final lifecycle result to be challenged and reproduced
05 / Public research infrastructure

Open what exists; label what does not.

The working release can export the research registry and schema. A public source-data repository and code repository are not yet claimed as released.

CL-REG-0.1
Publication registry

Working publication IDs, versions, types, status and programme links.

Download CSV
CL-DS-0.4
Evidence schema export

Working CL-E / CL-A / CL-D field structure. This is a specification, not a research dataset.

Download JSON
SOURCE DATA
Public evidence registry

Source-level licensing, provenance and place evidence will be released after evidence lock.

Under assembly
CODE
Reproducible methods repository

No public code repository is claimed in this working release.

Planned for method release
PEOPLE / RESEARCH GROUP

People doing the work.

Critical Load is built by one interdisciplinary internal team spanning research leadership, carbon systems, compute and data engineering, verification, sustainability, regulation, policy and research partnerships.

Roles below describe current responsibilities inside the institute. Publication authorship and review responsibility are attached only when a specific research output is released.

01 / Research team

One institute, multiple disciplines.

The team works across the six research programmes and the shared measurement system that connects compute, place, impact and decision.

Illustrated portrait of Xuguang Ma
Founder & Executive Director

Xuguang Ma

Institution strategy · compute infrastructure · decision systems
Former VP at a Series B climate company · former China GM roles at Gradle, Iron Mountain and Xerox
Illustrated portrait of Runwen Jin
Research & Product Lead — Carbon Systems

Runwen Jin

Lifecycle carbon · product systems · research translation
Wageningen University · former Gartner-recognized product manager · senior product roles in carbon software
Illustrated portrait of Yan Zhang
Research Engineer — Compute & Data Systems

Yan Zhang

AI engineering · telemetry · data infrastructure
Beihang University · 17 years in AI engineering · Dart AI (YC-backed)
Illustrated portrait of Dr. Yuanzhe Li
Research Scientist — Verification & Assurance

Dr. Yuanzhe Li

Verification systems · methodology assurance · environmental claims
Nanyang Technological University PhD · Singapore carbon-tax lead · Professor at China University of Mining and Technology
Illustrated portrait of Marcel Jacob Jacob
Research Scientist — Sustainability Systems

Marcel Jacob

Sustainability systems · industrial decarbonization · corporate practice
Former sustainability lead roles across Philips and Marlboro
Illustrated portrait of Dr. Neo Lin
Research Scientist — Regulation & Governance

Dr. Neo Lin

Regulation · governance · public decision frameworks
Renmin University PhD · government policy advisor
Illustrated portrait of Yumeng Liu
Research Scientist — Policy & Society

Yumeng Liu

Policy research · civil society · public-interest analysis
Peking University · University of California · former NGO researcher
Illustrated portrait of Lucinda Liu
Partnerships & Communications

Lucinda Liu

Research communications · partnerships · public engagement
University of California · 7 years in marketing · MSC / SOS NGO experience

Names, roles and backgrounds reflect current internal responsibilities. Programme ownership, publication authorship and review roles remain visible at the level of each specific output.

INSTITUTE

A public measurement institution for compute and place.

Critical Load is an independent research initiative focused on how much compute a place can carry, what additional compute changes locally, and how those results should inform infrastructure decisions.

Our objective is not to label compute “green.” It is to make compute capacity, lifecycle impact and local consequences measurable enough to be challenged and used.

01

Independence

Funding must not buy a research result or rating.

02

Transparency

Method, boundaries, evidence class and limitations accompany published results.

03

Comparability

Common units and versioned records allow places and workloads to be compared.

04

Challenge

Published methods are designed to be reproduced, tested, corrected and revised.

02 / Institution building

We disclose the institution we have, not the institution we hope to look like.

The working release does not claim a board, peer-review system, charity status or completed place ratings that have not yet been established. Formal governance and external review are built alongside the research.

NOW

Working research initiative

Programme structure, working methods, named team responsibilities and versioned research outputs are public.

NEXT

Formal scientific governance

Board and scientific-advisory structures will be published only after appointments are accepted and conflicts are disclosed.

RATINGS / WORKING METHOD

Ratings follow the evidence.

Critical Load ratings are not issued until the constraint model, evidence classes and review procedure are stable enough to support a public claim.

CL

Rating language is being built as a measurement notation, not an ESG score.

A future record will state capacity, binding constraint, local impact deltas, confidence, boundary, version and decision conditions — not just a letter grade.

CL–042176 MWWATER BOUND

CONFIDENCE / B
METHOD / CLM 0.4
VALID / 2026.09
RESEARCH SUPPORT

Support the research, not the result.

Funding is tied to public research assets: methods, data, place assessments, reproducible analysis and independent review. A funder does not purchase a conclusion, rating or preferred policy outcome.

01 / Fundable workstreams

Every workstream has a defined public output.

Each workstream is prepared as a 12-month research package with defined milestones, publication requirements and independent review.

12-month research track

Carbon of Compute

Develop the lifecycle carbon framework from semiconductor manufacturing and hardware through facility and operation to useful compute.

Public method releaseWorking paperBenchmark registry / schemaReproducible analysis notes
Pilot assessment track

Critical Load Place Assessments

Build public, evidence-traceable place assessments that connect physical capacity, project scenarios, local impacts and decision conditions.

CL-001 baseline assessmentScenario recordsEvidence registryPublic assessment template
Open infrastructure track

Compute Capacity Observatory

Build the versioned data infrastructure needed to compare major compute regions over time without collapsing local constraints into one opaque score.

Place-data schemaSource registryVersioned comparison recordsPublic data export
Integrity track

Independent Review & Corrections

Support expert review, disclosed conflicts, responses to review, uncertainty work and a public corrections log.

Reviewer disclosuresReview responsesCorrection / version historyMethod challenge notes
02 / Funding principles

Public benefit stays visible from grant to output.

01

No funder control over research conclusions or ratings.

02

Project support and material conflicts are disclosed with the output.

03

Publication terms are agreed before funding; negative findings are not suppressed.

04

Donation or tax treatment is stated by the actual contracting entity; this site makes no unverified charity-status claim.

03 / What support changes

Funding builds durable public research capacity.

Priority uses are researcher time, source-data access where lawful, compute and data infrastructure, field or place evidence, independent technical review and public publication.

ResearchEnergy systems
CL-R01

Workload energy attribution

How physical GPU and host energy becomes a workload-level environmental record.

Abstract. The programme connects direct board power and cumulative energy counters with activity-based attribution and model validation. The objective is not merely to report watts, but to establish an auditable path from physical hardware to a workload, job or GPU-hour.

Long-term research questionHow should physical energy be attributed to delivered compute?
Active projectCL-P01 / Compute Energy Measurement Protocol
Current responsibilityYan Zhang / AI & Data Engineering
Next public outputTechnical note + benchmark registry
GPU / A100BOARD POWER409.7 WCUMULATIVE ENERGY319,159,391 mJTIME WINDOWΔE / ΔtACTIVE / IDLE SEPARATIONWORKLOAD RECORDGPU-HOURPOD / PROCESSEVIDENCE ID
Measured signals are not yet workload evidence. The research problem is attribution: separate activity, allocate shared power, integrate over time, and preserve the uncertainty of the estimator.

Direct telemetry establishes the physical anchor.

A reference A100 telemetry record exposes 409.692 W board power and 319,159,391 mJ of cumulative energy — 88.655 Wh at the observation point.

409.692W / BOARD POWER

Instantaneous GPU board power in the reference record.

319.2MmJ / CUMULATIVE ENERGY

Hardware energy counter used as the integration anchor.

88.655Wh / CONVERTED ENERGY

Cumulative energy converted to a more usable unit.

ΔE/ΔtPOWER FROM ENERGY

Energy counter differences provide an independent power signal.

Critical Load method positionMeasurement should begin with physical energy counters wherever they exist. Modelled power should be a declared fallback, not an invisible substitute.

Evidence status: the 409.692 W telemetry example is a working reference record. Source provenance must be attached before it is promoted to a formal Critical Load publication result.

The difficult step is allocation, not sensing.

Node and GPU energy is shared. A useful compute metric requires an explicit attribution rule.

01

Observe

Read GPU and host energy counters plus utilization and process activity.

02

Separate

Estimate idle and dynamic power over the same observation window.

03

Attribute

Allocate dynamic energy using workload activity and shared resource time.

04

Integrate

Convert power samples into energy for the job, pod, process or GPU-hour.

05

Record

Preserve source, estimator version, window and uncertainty in the evidence record.

Workload energyEw = ∫ [Pidle,share(t) + Pdynamic,w(t)] dt

The model must expose the allocation of shared idle power and the activity signal used for dynamic power.

Power estimators can be tested against a physical reference.

In the reference validation, estimator-side mean absolute error was materially lower than the local model.

FIGURE 01.2
Reference power-model validation
CL-E01-V01
Estimator / run A
34.40 W MAE
Estimator / run B
49.52 W MAE
Local model / run A
66.32 W MAE
Local model / run B
93.57 W MAE
Reference power range: 505.79 W. The result demonstrates why model version and validation error belong in the final evidence record.
ResearchCarbon systems
CL-R02

Lifecycle carbon of compute

Compute does not become zero-carbon when its electricity becomes green.

Abstract. This programme defines a full lifecycle carbon boundary for compute: semiconductor manufacturing, hardware integration, data-center infrastructure, electricity, cooling, shared network/storage, replacement and end of life. The result is allocated to useful compute and can then be translated into a carbon-limited capacity.

Long-term research questionWhat is the full lifecycle carbon intensity of useful compute?
Active projectCL-P02 / Carbon of Compute
Current responsibilityRunwen Jin / Product & Carbon Systems
Next public outputWorking paper + lifecycle schema
01Semiconductorfab · gases · yield · package
02Hardwareaccelerator · server · rack
03Facilitybuilding · UPS · power · cooling plant
04ElectricityIT + facility energy · grid context
05Coolingrefrigerants · embodied equipment
06Shared + EOLnetwork · storage · replacement
ΣCompute carbonper GPU-hour · job · token · useful compute
The carbon chain begins before a GPU exists. Operational electricity is one component of the result, not the lifecycle boundary itself.

Seven carbon sources are kept visible until the final allocation.

The method separates semiconductor, hardware, facility, electricity, cooling, shared services and replacement/end-of-life so that upstream evidence remains inspectable instead of disappearing inside one factor.

Lifecycle compute carbonCLC = Csemi + Chardware + Cfacility + Celectricity + Ccooling + Cnetwork/storage + Creplacement/EOL

All terms must first share the same system boundary and allocation denominator.

Research positionA “zero-carbon compute” claim based only on contracted electricity does not describe the full physical lifecycle of the compute service.

As electricity gets cleaner, carbon does not disappear — its relative weight moves upstream.

The visual below is a qualitative scenario, not a measured percentage dataset. It illustrates the accounting consequence of sharply reducing operational electricity carbon while manufacturing and infrastructure remain.

Illustrative regime A

Grid-intensive operation

ElectricitySemiconductorHardwareFacilityOther
Illustrative regime B

Low-carbon electricity

ElectricitySemiconductorHardwareFacilityOther

Normalized schematic only. The actual shares are calculated from the declared hardware, facility, electricity, lifetime and manufacturing evidence for each assessment.

Why semiconductor research mattersWhen operational electricity falls, fab process gases, yield, packaging and hardware manufacturing can become materially more important to the carbon intensity of useful compute.

The existing cloud model remains the operational-carbon layer — not the whole lifecycle.

At PUE 1.135, 1,000 kWh of IT energy becomes 1,135 kWh of facility energy. Across the six reference electricity contexts, the operational result spans 90.1–1,080.3 kgCO₂e per MWh IT.

FIGURE 02.2
Operational carbon / same 1 MWh IT workload
CL-E02-O01
New Zealand
90.1 kg
Oregon / N. California
339.0 kg
N. Virginia
414.4 kg
Osaka
499.2 kg
Singapore
561.3 kg
Mumbai
1,080.3 kg
Working operational illustration only. Semiconductor, hardware, facility embodied carbon and other lifecycle terms are added separately under CL-LC. Electricity-factor provenance remains part of the evidence release gate.
Operational electricity carbonCop,electricity = IT energy × facility-overhead treatment × electricity factor

Location-based, procurement-based and lifecycle electricity factors remain separate evidence statements.

Cooling contributes through energy, refrigerants and embodied infrastructure.

Energy

Cooling electricity

Included through PUE when using a top-down facility model, or measured directly in a bottom-up model.

Direct emissions

Refrigerants

Leakage is a separate greenhouse-gas source and is not electricity carbon.

Embodied

Cooling plant

Chillers, pumps, heat exchangers and other cooling assets contribute manufacturing and construction carbon.

×2
If IT energy × PUE is used, cooling electricity is already in the facility total.

Bottom-up cooling energy replaces the relevant facility-overhead estimate; it is not added a second time.

Facility embodied carbon also includes building structure, transformers, UPS, switchgear, batteries and power distribution. Those assets are allocated by service life, capacity and workload share.

The lifecycle inventory becomes useful only after it is assigned to delivered compute.

UPSTREAM

Chip + hardware

Allocate manufacturing carbon by lifetime utilization, GPU-hours, delivered FLOPs or another declared useful-work denominator.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Facility

Allocate building and equipment embodied carbon by capacity × time × utilization share.

SERVICE

Network + storage

Allocate shared service carbon by traffic, storage-hours or a documented service allocation.

Lifecycle carbon intensityIcarbon,LC = CLC / useful compute

Output units can be kgCO₂e/GPU-hour, kgCO₂e/job, gCO₂e/1k tokens or another reproducible compute denominator.

Lifecycle carbon can become a binding capacity constraint.

Once full lifecycle carbon is expressed on the same compute and time boundary, a stated emissions budget can be converted into maximum supportable compute.

Carbon constraintLcarbon = carbon budget / lifecycle compute carbon intensity

The result is normalized to the same time and capacity basis as power, grid, water, cooling and other Critical Load constraints.

Critical Load resultThe lifecycle model closes the chain: fab evidence → compute carbon intensity → carbon budget → supportable compute → Critical Load.

The final carbon number must expose what was measured, modelled and allocated.

LayerEvidence classExample recordRelease rule
SemiconductorPrimary / modelledfab inventory, yield, packagecarry CL-SCM version
HardwareReported / modelledproduct PCF, lifetimedeclare product boundary
FacilityReported / modelledconstruction and equipment carbondeclare capacity-time allocation
ElectricityMeasured / contextualkWh, PUE, grid factorstate electricity claim type
CoolingMeasured / reportedenergy, refrigerant, cooling assetsstate PUE overlap treatment
Lifecycle compute carbonDerivedkgCO₂e/GPU-hour or jobcarry all upstream evidence IDs
ResearchAI systems
CL-R03

Energy intensity of AI inference

Reasoning, batching, hardware and precision change the energy cost of a response.

Abstract. The programme synthesizes measured inference benchmarks into an environmental intensity framework that separates response-level energy, token efficiency, hardware choice and methodological uncertainty.

Long-term research questionHow do task, batching, hardware and precision change inference energy?
Active projectCL-P01 / Inference benchmark stream
Current responsibilityYan Zhang / AI & Data Engineering
Next public outputBenchmark registry + result notes
184 J
Conversation
717 mean output tokens
4,625 J
Reasoning
6,988 mean output tokens
≈25× per response. “One response” is not a stable environmental unit. Task type changes output length and runtime enough to dominate the result.

The benchmark is large enough to expose regime changes.

46MODELS

Model families included in the reference benchmark synthesis.

7TASKS

Conversation, reasoning and multimodal workloads.

1,858CONFIGURATIONS

Hardware / batch / precision combinations.

2GPU GENERATIONS

H100 and B200 in matched comparisons.

Critical Load interpretationAI footprint should be expressed as a distribution over workload configuration — not a single model-specific constant.

Chung et al. (2026), Where Do the Joules Go? Diagnosing Inference Energy Consumption, ML.ENERGY, arXiv:2601.22076 ↗. The published measurement boundary and configuration-level results are retained in this research record.

For Qwen 3 32B, reasoning raised energy per response by ~23×.

At the reference settings, conversation energy was 95 J per response; reasoning was 2,192 J.

Qwen 3 32B / B200ConversationReasoning
Mean output627 tokens7,035 tokens
Max batch512128
Energy / token @ BS1280.209 J0.312 J
Energy / token @ max batch0.151 J0.312 J
Energy / response95 J2,192 J

Optimization rules reverse across utilization regimes.

Batching

3–5×

Higher concurrency can cut energy per token by roughly three to five times in the reference analysis.

Hardware

63 / 72

B200 won 63 of 72 matched-latency LLM comparisons, with a median ~35% energy reduction.

Precision

0 / 7

FP8 won none of seven small-batch comparisons; median energy was about 30% higher.

Method implication“Use lower precision” or “use newer hardware” is not an environmental rule unless utilization and latency constraints are held constant.

Production assumptions can move a model estimate by 65×.

A 400-token Mistral Small 3.2 estimate changed from 1.43 Wh to 0.022 Wh after the methodology incorporated more production-like batching and hardware assumptions.

FIGURE 03.4
Method-version sensitivity
CL-E03-C01/C02
Earlier estimate
1.43 Wh
Updated estimate
0.022 Wh
The implication is methodological, not merely numerical: inference footprint tools must publish model version and uncertainty.
ResearchWater systems
CL-R04

Water as a binding compute constraint

A litre of water does not mean the same thing everywhere.

Abstract. The programme connects data-centre water use with basin-level scarcity and seasonal conditions, then translates that context into a maximum supportable compute load.

Long-term research questionWhen does local water become the binding constraint on compute growth?
Active projectCL-P03 / Place Water Constraint Model
Current responsibilityCritical Load Research Group
Next public outputModel note; independent hydrology review planned
PHYSICAL USE
LOW STRESS
MEDIUM STRESS
EXTREME STRESS
500 Lsame physical volume
8%withdrawals / available flow
28%withdrawals / available flow
86%withdrawals / available flow
Water volume is not the local impact. Basin context turns WUE from a generic efficiency metric into a place-specific constraint signal.

Baseline water stress is a ratio, not a volume.

The reference framework classifies annual water stress from low (<10%) to extremely high (>80%) based on withdrawals relative to available supply.

Stress bandWithdrawals / available flowInterpretation
Low<10%Relatively low competition for supply
Low–medium10–20%Increasing competition
Medium–high20–40%Material constraint signal
High40–80%High competition for supply
Extremely high>80%Strong potential binding constraint
25COUNTRIES

Reference finding: extremely high annual water stress.

≈¼GLOBAL POPULATION

Exposed in the annual reference finding.

≈4BPEOPLE

Face high water stress at least one month per year.

>80%EXTREME BAND

Threshold used for the strongest stress class.

World Resources Institute, Aqueduct 4.0 / 2023 water-stress findings ↗. Basin stress, facility demand and competing uses are kept distinct in the place assessment.

A 100 MW site can convert WUE into an annual local water requirement.

At PUE 1.20 and WUE 0.50 L/kWh, a continuously loaded 100 MW IT facility implies roughly 525,600 m³ of annual site water use.

Annual site water100 MW × 8,760 h × 1.20 × 0.50 L/kWh ≈ 525,600 m³/year

The next step is not to label this number “good” or “bad”; it is to test it against basin, utility, seasonal and permit constraints.

Critical Load extensionWater-limited compute capacity is the maximum IT load for which site demand remains inside the local water constraint.
ResearchSemiconductor manufacturing
CL-R05

Semiconductor manufacturing carbon & embodied compute

From fab process inventory to wafer, die, package and lifetime useful compute.

Abstract. Critical Load's semiconductor programme treats one of carbon accounting's most data-constrained areas as a first-class measurement problem. The working method traces fab electricity, process gases, abatement, chemicals, ultrapure water, yield and advanced packaging through to product-level embodied carbon and, finally, a compute-intensity denominator.

Long-term research questionHow much carbon exists before an accelerator becomes operational?
Active projectCL-P02 / Semiconductor workstream
Current responsibilityRunwen Jin / Product & Carbon Systems
Next public outputCL-SCM method + public benchmark bridge
FABElectricityProcess gasesAbatementChemicals / UPWWAFERNodeWafer startsGOOD DIEDie areaYieldPACKAGESubstrateHBM / backendCOMPUTEAcceleratorServerLifetime workgCO₂e / useful computeALLOCATION + YIELD + LIFETIME DENOMINATOR
The carbon chain begins before a GPU exists. Critical Load treats fab process inventory and yield as first-class evidence, then carries manufacturing impact through packaging and system integration to useful delivered compute.

Semiconductor carbon is a measurement problem before it is a reporting problem.

The hardest variables are often inside the fab: process gas use and destruction, cleanroom electricity, chemical and water inventories, node-specific process intensity, equipment allocation, wafer yield and confidential supplier data.

PFC / NF₃PROCESS GASES

Gas-specific inventory and destruction efficiency can materially change direct process emissions.

ABATEDESTRUCTION

Nameplate abatement is not automatically equivalent to realized destruction performance.

YIELDGOOD DIE

The same wafer-level impact is allocated across the number of usable dies that leave the process.

UPWULTRAPURE WATER

Water and chemical treatment belong inside the manufacturing inventory, not outside the boundary.

Research positionPrimary manufacturing evidence is frequently confidential. Critical Load separates publishable method and normalized sensitivity from non-public fab records rather than replacing missing data with an unexplained industry average.

Fab inventory is carried through wafer, die and package allocation.

01

Fab inventory

Electricity, process gases, abatement, chemicals, UPW, equipment and facility allocation.

02

Wafer basis

Process node, wafer diameter, wafer starts and manufacturing period.

03

Good die

Die area, gross dies, yield and usable output determine the allocation denominator.

04

Package

Substrate, advanced packaging, memory/HBM and backend manufacturing are added.

05

Useful compute

Product carbon is normalized by lifetime utilization and delivered compute.

Good-die allocationIdie = allocated wafer impact / good dies + die-specific backend impact

Yield, allocation rule and data-quality class remain attached to the result.

The dominant driver can move when fab, node, yield and packaging change.

Our semiconductor work is designed around sensitivity rather than a single universal chip factor. The method tests which input actually controls the result under the stated manufacturing configuration.

VariableWhat changesExpected result effectEvidence requirement
Fab electricity mixkgCO₂e / kWhOperational manufacturing carbon shifts with local electricityFab / supplier period
Process gas + abatementGas use and destructionDirect process emissions can become a major driverGas-specific inventory
Good-die yieldUsable dies per waferLower yield raises impact allocated to each good dieNode / product yield
Advanced packagingSubstrate, HBM, backendPackaging can shift the balance after die fabricationPackage bill / process data

Directional result structure. Proprietary fab-level primary data is not exposed in the public working site.

Published product carbon anchors the downstream system.

A public HGX H100 baseboard PCF reports 1,312 kgCO₂e cradle-to-gate, with 91% attributed to materials and components. Critical Load uses public product-level PCFs as benchmark checks, not as a substitute for upstream semiconductor process research.

FIGURE 05.2
HGX H100 component contribution
CL-E05-P01
Memory
546 kg / 42%
Integrated circuits
332 kg / 25%
Thermal components
230 kg / 18%
Assembly
8.6 kg

NVIDIA, Product Carbon Footprint Summary for HGX H100 (2024) ↗. The 1,312 kgCO₂e cradle-to-gate result and component shares are used as a public benchmark check, not as Critical Load primary data.

Embodied carbon becomes decision-useful only after a compute denominator is attached.

In the existing public reference comparison, embodied compute intensity falls from 0.66 to 0.50 gCO₂e/exaflop — about 24% — illustrating why product carbon alone is not enough for hardware comparison.

FIGURE 05.3
Embodied carbon per exaflop
CL-E05-P02
H100 system
0.66 g/exaflop
B200 system
0.50 g/exaflop
Embodied compute intensityIemb = manufacturing carbon / lifetime useful compute

Utilization, lifetime and delivered work are first-class parameters.

Semiconductor manufacturing is the upstream component of the broader compute lifecycle model.

CL-SCM ends at an embodied compute intensity. CL-R02 then combines that upstream result with hardware integration, facility, electricity, cooling, shared services and replacement/end-of-life to produce full lifecycle compute carbon.

Semiconductor contributionIsemi → Icarbon,LC → Lcarbon

The semiconductor result never substitutes for the rest of the lifecycle; it feeds it.

Critical Load extensionThe difficult fab evidence remains traceable all the way into the final carbon-limited capacity instead of being hidden inside a generic embodied-carbon factor.
ResearchCompute routing
CL-R06

Time and region shifting under physical constraints

The lowest-carbon location is not always the correct place to run compute.

Abstract. This programme treats workload placement as a constrained optimization problem: first define the feasible set from service and infrastructure conditions, then compare carbon, water, grid stress and cost without hiding the trade-offs.

Long-term research questionWhere and when should flexible compute run after physical constraints?
Active projectCL-P05 / Constraint-aware Compute Routing
Current responsibilityYan Zhang / AI & Data Engineering
Next public outputResearch note + decision-record format
1,0000NZ79OR299N.VA365OSA440SG495BOM952location opportunity envelope
Reference electricity intensity: 79–952 gCO₂e/kWh. Location can radically change operational carbon, but the lowest-carbon region is not automatically feasible once water, grid, latency and sovereignty are included.

Workload scheduling can change carbon outcomes, but no universal reduction factor exists.

Published studies report material reductions under specific workloads, regions and control assumptions. Critical Load treats those results as evidence about opportunity, not as a transferable constant.

41.2%UP TO / GREEN

Cluster-wide carbon-footprint reduction reported in the GREEN evaluation.

12%PEAK POWER

Peak-power reduction reported alongside the GREEN carbon result.

14.5%CARBON / DC-CFR

Carbon reduction reported by the DC-CFR multi-agent control study.

14.4%ENERGY / DC-CFR

Energy reduction reported in the same one-year multi-region evaluation.

Xu et al., GREEN, USENIX NSDI 2025 ↗; Sarkar et al., DC-CFR, AAAI 2024 ↗. Results remain bounded by each study's workloads, regions and control assumptions.

Critical Load research questionWhat remains feasible after latency, sovereignty, capacity, grid reliability, water and local constraints are applied before carbon optimization?

Reproducible control research needs a shared environment, not only headline percentages.

DCRL-Green provides a modular, configurable multi-agent environment for testing how workload scheduling, cooling and battery control interact. It makes assumptions inspectable and gives the programme a concrete base for scenario replication and extension.

Sarkar et al. / Hewlett Packard Enterprise / AAAI 2024 / DOI 10.1609/aaai.v38i21.30580

Sustainability of Data Center Digital Twins with Reinforcement Learning

The environment can support controlled comparisons of carbon, energy and cost strategies before place-specific grid, water, capacity and service constraints are added.

Environmental optimization comes after technical feasibility.

01

Service

Deadline, latency, sovereignty, model and GPU availability.

02

Capacity

Power, grid headroom, cluster availability and reliability.

03

Context

Carbon, water, cooling and local environmental state.

04

Pareto set

Keep trade-offs visible instead of compressing them into one opaque score.

05

Record

Publish the chosen option and the rejected counterfactuals.

Feasible setF = {r,t | latency, sovereignty, capacity, reliability, deadline satisfied}
Decision objectiveminr,t∈F [carbon, water constraint, grid stress, cost]

The selected location should be explainable.

CandidateCarbonWaterGridServiceDecision
Region A / nowHighMediumConstrainedPassReject
Region B / +4hLowHighAvailablePassReview water
Region C / +2hLow–mediumLowAvailablePassSelected

Illustrative decision-record format. Environmental states are placeholders for the final live evidence inputs, not claims about specific real regions.

ACTIVE PROJECTS / 2026.09

Research in progress.

Programmes define long-term questions. Projects show the work currently being developed, assembled or scoped, who is responsible, and what becomes public next.

CL-P01Method development

Compute Energy Measurement Protocol

How can physical GPU and host energy be turned into reproducible workload-level evidence without hiding allocation error?

LeadYan Zhang / AI & Data EngineeringProgrammesR01 · R03Current workTelemetry evidence, activity allocation, estimator validation, benchmark registry.Next outputTechnical note + working benchmark registry.
CL-P02Working research

Carbon of Compute

What is the full lifecycle carbon intensity of compute once semiconductor manufacturing, hardware, facility and operation share one boundary?

LeadRunwen Jin / Product & Carbon Systems; Xuguang Ma / synthesisProgrammesR02 · R05Current workLifecycle boundary, fab-to-compute allocation, public PCF benchmark bridge.Next outputWorking paper + open lifecycle schema.
CL-P03Method development

Place Water Constraint Model

When does local water availability, seasonal stress or utility capacity become the binding limit on additional compute?

LeadCritical Load Research GroupProgrammeR04Current workSite water demand, basin context, threshold logic and evidence requirements.GapIndependent hydrology review is sought before a public model release.
CL-P04Evidence assembly

CL-001 Place Assessment

Can one place assessment carry grid, water, lifecycle carbon, land, permitting and community evidence into a defensible capacity and decision record?

Project leadXuguang MaData systemYan ZhangPolicy adviceDr. Neo Lin · Yumeng LiuNext outputBaseline assessment. No Critical Load rating has been issued.
CL-P05Working research

Constraint-aware Compute Routing

How should flexible workloads move across time and place after latency, sovereignty, grid, water, reliability and cost constraints are applied?

LeadYan Zhang / AI & Data EngineeringProgrammeR06Current workFeasible-set logic, multi-objective comparison and decision-record design.Next outputResearch note + reproducible decision examples.
CL-P06Scoping

Open Evidence Registry

How can every published Critical Load result preserve sources, assumptions, uncertainty, method version and correction history?

LeadResearch & Data teamProgrammesCross-programmeCurrent workEvidence classes, source IDs, publication registry and correction fields.Next outputRegistry specification; public code repository not yet released.
PUBLICATIONS / WORKING ARCHIVE

Every result carries its evidence trail.

Critical Load separates working papers, research briefs, method notes and data specifications. Working outputs are explicitly labelled and are not presented as peer reviewed. Every release keeps authorship, affiliation, methods, source links and review status attached to the result.

Evidence status
Released research and working outputs use one publication standard: visible authorship, methods, source records, limitations, review status and version history.
ID
Title
Type
Status
Open
CL-R03-A01
Where Do the Joules Go?Chung, Wu, Ma & Chowdhury / ML.ENERGY
Paper + measurements · 2026
R03 · inference
Open ↗
CL-R05-A01
HGX H100 Product Carbon FootprintNVIDIA / analysis by WSP
PCF report · 2025
R05 · hardware
Open ↗
CL-R04-A01
Aqueduct 4.0 water-stress findingsWorld Resources Institute
Dataset + analysis · 2023
R04 · water
Open ↗
CL-R06-A01
GREENXu et al. / HKUST + USTC / NSDI
Paper + artifacts · 2025
R06 · routing
Open ↗
CL-R06-A02
DC-CFRSarkar et al. / Hewlett Packard Enterprise / AAAI
Peer-reviewed paper · 2024
R06 · control
Open ↗
CL-R06-A03
DCRL-GreenSarkar et al. / Hewlett Packard Enterprise / AAAI
Paper + open repository · 2024
R06 · simulation
Open ↗
CL-WP-001
Workload energy attributionWorking · not peer reviewed
Working paper · v1.0
R01 · energy systems
Read →
CL-WP-002
Lifecycle carbon of computeWorking · not peer reviewed
Working paper · v1.1
R02 / R05
Read →
CL-WP-003
Energy intensity of AI inferenceWorking · not peer reviewed
Working paper · v1.0
R03 · AI systems
Read →
CL-RB-004
Water as a binding compute constraintWorking · not peer reviewed
Research brief · v1.0
R04 · water
Read →
CL-MR-005
Semiconductor manufacturing carbon & embodied computeWorking · not peer reviewed
Method research · v0.1
R05 · semiconductor
Read →
CL-RN-006
Time and region shifting under physical constraintsWorking · not peer reviewed
Research note · v1.0
R06 · routing
Read →
CL-MN-001
Critical Load methodologyWorking method
Method note · v0.5
Cross-programme
Read →
CL-DS-001
Evidence & data schemaWorking specification
Data specification · v0.4
Cross-programme
Read →
02 / Release standard

A publication is more than a claim on a webpage.

Formal releases carry authors, type, version, date, evidence IDs, method version, limitations, citation text and change history. Peer review is stated only when it has actually occurred.

RESEARCH AGENDA / 2027–2030

The next questions are larger than one rating.

The agenda describes intended research directions and milestones. It is a plan, not a claim that the outputs or geographic coverage already exist.

MISSION 01

Measure compute.

How can chips, hardware and workloads share one reproducible physical measurement chain?

Develop common measurement and allocation rules from telemetry and manufacturing evidence to workload energy and useful compute.

Compute Measurement Protocol 1.0Benchmark registry with versioned assumptionsReproducible workload evidence records
MISSION 02

Measure the full physical footprint.

What remains when electricity becomes cleaner?

Measure lifecycle carbon, semiconductor manufacturing, cooling, water, land, infrastructure and community exposure rather than reducing compute impact to electricity alone.

Carbon of Compute research programmeCL-SCM semiconductor methodIntegrated impact boundary
MISSION 03

Measure places.

How much compute can different places carry, and what binds first?

Build public place assessments with explicit grid zones, watersheds, time boundaries, evidence quality and comparable scenarios.

2027 objective / first evidence-complete pilot assessments2028 objective / comparative major-region research2029–2030 objective / longitudinal observatory coverage, subject to evidence quality
MISSION 04

Turn evidence into decisions.

Where should compute be built, how much, under what conditions, and at what local cost?

Translate measurement into capacity envelopes, impact deltas, mitigation conditions, rejected alternatives and public decision records.

Critical Load Method 1.0Place Assessment standardScenario + Decision Record
02 / Institutional horizon

What success would create.

The intended public infrastructure is a common method, open evidence records, reproducible research, comparable place assessments and a body of decision evidence that can be used by governments, infrastructure operators, investors and communities.

2027
Method + pilots. Stabilize measurement rules and release first evidence-complete place work without forcing premature ratings.
2028
Comparison. Expand only where source quality supports meaningful cross-place comparison and independent review.
2029–30
Public infrastructure. Move from isolated assessments toward longitudinal datasets, revisions and a durable compute-capacity observatory.
GOVERNANCE / WORKING POLICY

Independence has to be designed into the research.

These are working institutional policies for funding, conflicts, review and corrections. Formal legal governance structures are published only after they exist.

01

Research independence

Funding may define a research question or geographic scope, but it cannot prescribe a rating, conclusion, preferred technology or policy outcome.

02

Funding transparency

Material project support is disclosed with the output. Funding relationships that could reasonably affect interpretation are stated alongside the research.

03

Conflict of interest

Authors, researchers and reviewers disclose material financial, professional or institutional conflicts relevant to a release. Conflicted contributions are not represented as independent review.

04

Review & corrections

Working research remains challengeable. Material corrections receive a version change, dated note and explanation; prior versions remain identifiable where practical.

02 / Current governance state

No invented board. No invented peer review.

The current working site identifies internal team responsibilities but does not claim a formal board, scientific council or completed peer review where those structures or reviews have not been established. Governance appointments and reviewer disclosures will be added as they become real.

CL-001 / PLACE ASSESSMENT / EVIDENCE ASSEMBLY

Northern Virginia — working assessment.

CL-001 is the first place-based pilot intended to connect compute growth with power, grid, water, lifecycle carbon, land, permitting and community evidence. No Critical Load rating is published on this working page.

Status / evidence assembly
CL-001

The release gate is evidence completeness, not a launch date. Proposed scenarios for method testing are +100 MW, +500 MW and +1 GW. Results remain unpublished until place boundaries, evidence quality, uncertainty and independent review requirements are met.

Power / gridBaseline demand, supply, interconnection and reliability evidenceassembling
WaterFacility demand, utility context, watershed stress and seasonalityassembling
CarbonOperational electricity + lifecycle compute boundarymethod linked
Land / permitSite, land-use, planning and regulatory conditionsscoping
CommunityInfrastructure burden, local exposure and public-interest evidencescoping
DecisionCapacity envelope, binding limit, conditions and rejected alternativesnot issued
02 / Release gates

A rating is the end of the evidence process, not the beginning.

G1Boundary lock

Grid, watershed, administrative, project and time boundaries stated.

G2Evidence lock

Sources, missing data, modelled values and uncertainty made visible.

G3Scenario test

Comparable project increments run against the same place baseline.

G4Review

Independent domain review completed before a public rating claim.